← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
decks
14
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
77
37-31-9
overall winrate
53.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1395
· median 1380
· range 1278–1656
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1204
Q3 1396
1656
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 45.5% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 46.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 10 | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 54.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.8% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.7 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Reprogram, Tariff Ring. Losers more often ran: Sudden Steel, Vanish from Sight, Disintegrate.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Intangible Geist
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Sudden Steel
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Disintegrate
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Potion Infusion: Seal
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intangible Geist | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |